Computational Analysis of Monterrey Sardine (Sardinops sagax) Responses to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a (Chla) Variability in the Gulf of California, 1998-2015

Authors

  • María del Carmen Heras-Sánchez Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste
  • Juana López-Martínez Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste
  • Manuel Otilio Nevárez-Martínez Centro Regional de Investigación Acuícola y Pesquera en Guaymas
  • Hugo Herrera-Cervantes Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada
  • Edgardo Basilio Farach-Espinoza Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste
  • Raúl Gilberto Hazas-Izquierdo Universidad de Sonora
  • Christian E. Maldonado-Sifuentes Consejo Nacional de Humanidades, Ciencias y Tecnologías

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.13053/cys-28-4-5216

Keywords:

Gulf of California, SST, Chla, Sardina Monterrey, Sardinops Sagax

Abstract

This study employs advanced computational techniques to conduct a spatio temporal analysis of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) in the Gulf of California (GC) from 1998 to 2015. The analysis uses satellite imagery with 4 km resolution from AVHRR, MODIS-Aqua, and SeaWiFS sensors, which were processed through Idrisi Terrset 2020’s geospatial modeling tools. Key computational methods include raster image processing, reclassification for precise geographic delineation, and statistical modeling using the Theil-Sen estimator and multiple linear regression techniques within the Earth Trends Modeler module. These method senabled the generation of robust spatio temporal models, correlations, and trend analyses of environmental variables like SST and Chla. Data on Monterey sardine (Sardinops sagax) catches, categorized byfishing zones, were also analyzed, revealing a declining trend, with sardine catches decreasing by 16.5 tonsper month on average and dropping from over 60% of total small pelagic catches in 2007-2010 to just 2% in 2014-2015. The region of large islands (zones III, IV, and V) was identified as the most productive, contributing 44% to total sardine production. A significant negative correlation (r = −0.81) was found between SSTand Chla, indicating that higher SSTs result in lower Chla concentrations. Monterey sardine catches also responded to environmental changes with a two-monthlag, showing correlations of r = −0.52 with SST and r = 0.57 with Chla. The comprehensive computational approach, which included linear and nonlinear modeling, provided critical insights in to the dynamics between environmental variables and sardine population trends, emphasizing the importance of on going monitoring and adaptive fisheries management in the face of climate change.

Downloads

Published

2024-12-03

Issue

Vol. 28 No. 4 (2024): 28(4) 2024

Section

Articles

License 

Hereby I transfer exclusively to the Journal "Computación y 
Sistemas", published by the Computing Research Center (CIC-IPN),
the Copyright of the aforementioned paper. I also accept that these 
rights will not be transferred to any other publication, in any other 
format, language or other existing means of developing.
I certify that the paper has not been previously disclosed or simultaneo
usly submitted to any other publication, and that it does not contain 
material whose publication would violate the Copyright or other 
proprietary rights of any person, company or institution. I certify that 
I have the permission from the institution or company where I work or 
study to publish this work.
The representative author accepts the responsibility for the publication
of this paper on behalf of each and every one of the authors. 
This transfer is subject to the following conditions:
  • The authors retain all ownership rights (such as patent rights) of this work, except for the publishing rights transferred to the CIC, through this document.
  • Authors retain the right to publish the work in whole or in part in any book they are the authors or publishers. They can also make use of this work in conferences, courses, personal web pages, and so on.
  • Authors may include working as part of his thesis, for non-profit distribution only.